Would Brent Central Lib Dems punish Sarah Teather for Lib/Con pact?
Brent Central is close. Just 1,345 votes separated Labour and the Lib Dems, around 3% or about 1.5 voters in every 50.
Would Brent Central Lib Dem voters punish Sarah Teather for a Lib/Con pact? In a briefing paper published today by the Fabian society, Brent Central is listed as a constituency likely to swing back to Labour at a second general election in 2010.
“As this table shows, there are 15 Lib Dem seats that would fall to Labour if just one-in-five of their voters switched to Labour. These would include all five gains that the Lib Dems made from Labour on Thursday night – Norwich South, Bradford East, Brent Central, Burnley and Redcar. Several Lib Dem MPs, including frontbenchers Sarah Teather and Jo Swinson, are even more vulnerable, falling if just one-in-ten Lib Dem voters defects to Labour in protest.”
I think the assessment is right. On the doorstep and in the cafe, liberal voters I’ve spoken to are both left/centre-left and tactical. A deal with Tories would most likely unseat Sarah Teather and return Brent to Labour. Perhaps Dawn Butler will rise after all.
Brent’s General Election results.
The voters of Brent have returned Lib Dem Sarah Teather with a majority of 1,345, a swing of 11% from Labour, and Labour’s Barry Gardiner with a majority of 8,028, loosing 2.5% of the vote to the Conservatives (+2.2%) and other parties. I was at the count on Thursday night tally marking for the Lib Dems and in-between boxes of ballot papers talking with candidates and journalists about the political economy of Brent as a borough. And still there at 11:30 on Friday morning when the results were announced! I didn’t have the stamina for the Local Election counts though!
It was a long and tense night with some low drama at the first validation following the ballot paper mixup in Willesden Green and the re-routing of the Hampstead and Kilburn ballot boxes via Camden. The ballot counters of Brent Council worked really hard, first collating and validating the ballot papers, then counting the ballots cast. Tally Teams from Labour and the Lib Dems jostled politely for space to count the Brent Central ballots as they were sorted, while at the Brent North tables it was Labour and Conservative Teams that rubbed shoulders. By 530am, both Labour and the Lib Dems were looking tense, each thinking their candidate had just clinched victory. As the Harrow Observer report, ‘Labour [believed] Dawn Butler, the former MP for Brent South, [was] two per cent ahead in terms of number of votes, or just one ballot paper in every 50.‘
Brent North was announced first, with Barry Gardiner warning against Labour “starting a new love affair” with the Lib Dems so soon after being rejected by the electorate, saying he was “deeply distrustful” of the party.
In Sarah Teather’s victory speech she thanked the people of Brent for renewing their trust and faith in her, promising to continue her work as a constituency MP.
Dawn Butler quoted Maya Angelo in her valediction to the assembled: “You may write me down in history, With your bitter, twisted lies, You may trod me in the very dirt, But still, like dust, I’ll rise.”
Does she not recall who was caught out spreading ‘bitter twisted lies’ to the electorate?
Shahrar Ali thanked the Green voters, saying that with the direction of travel for politics there will come more Brighton Pavilion victories in the future.
Click here for all my photos from the night.
Brent Central – Willesden Green
Mark Pack reports that in Willesden Green polling didn’t start until after 9am becuase ballot papers for the wrong Parliamentary constituency had been supplied to all three polling stations Willesden Green ward.
Bonkers.
Kilburn Station, 6:45pm
Busy outside Kilburn Station this evening. Picked up a whole host of goodies and the Evening Standard.
Team Glenda gave me a DVD with ROSS KEMP on it! ‘Gone in 60 seconds’ explains “what’s at stake on Thursday“. Hopefully. He. Makes. It. Easy. For. Me. To. Understand.
Some more celebrity messages for Team Labour attacking the Tories from Jo Brand and Eddie Izzard. And David Tennant shares with us that he thinks David Cameron is “a terrifying prospect” in a viewspaper ‘Britian’s recovery at risk from Tories‘.
I also read David Cameron’s Contract With [me]. Headline: If we don’t deliver, kick us out. Detail: In five years time.
Dawn Butler’s hoarding at Unisys, Brentfield
Is back on its legs.
Whatever you do, don’t visit the web address stencilled on the windows of the building, unless you want to book an escort….
Does Dawn know (or care) where Stonebridge is?
On this mornings electoral communication from the Labour Party, Dawn Butler highlights housing, in particular the investment in Stonebridge and St. Raphael’s Estate where monstrous concrete high rises are being destroyed, replaced with low-density and low-rise housing.
Are Brent Labour sure?
Only that is not Stonebridge. It’s Trellick Tower, 3miles down the road in Ladbroke Grove…..
The stock photo comes from PhotoEverywhere.
This isn’t the first time Labour have had stock photography issues locally. Remember the 50 extra police on Brent’s streets in Yasmin Qureshi’s materials in 2005 that were photographed in Shepherds Bush?
Bridge Park
I popped down to Bridge Park yesterday morning, for reasons which will become clear…. Bumped into Errol Williams, preparing for a busy day out in Brent Proclaiming Christ’s Lordship. His first pledge is to bring all legislation is brought into conformity with the word of God. I uploaded his materials to TheStraightChoice for reference and they are included in the slideshow.
Bridge Park is just of Brentfield as you come down from Harlesden.
View Larger Map
Liberal Democrats
Labour
Sachin Rajput
Shahrar Ali
Errol Williams
Abdi Duale
Dean McCastree
